Sellers nationwide are pricing for 2022 while buyers borrow at 7%, and Houston is one of the three most lopsided among major U.S. metros.
Homes are sitting unsold in Houston because sellers and buyers disagree on price, and there are now more than two sellers for every buyer. The same standoff is playing out across the country. It ends the same way everywhere: the price moves, or the home waits.
We see it from inside our own listings. “There’s a chasm between buyers and sellers in terms of expectation,” said Jimmy Simien, Broker/Owner of Simien Properties, on a recent episode of our Ask Jimmy (opens in a new tab) series. This article explains where that chasm came from, what the data says about it, and what it asks of sellers and of the agents who advise them.
How Many Homes Are Sitting Unsold Right Now?
Greater Houston had 40,192 single-family homes for sale in September, and the country had more than 1.16 million active listings in September. Nationally, sellers outnumbered buyers by the widest margin in Redfin’s records, which go back to 2013. The national picture comes from Redfin’s October 14, 2026 report and Realtor.com’s September 2026 Monthly Housing Trends Report, released September 30:
- Estimated U.S. home sellers and buyers in September: 1,510,784 sellers and 928,892 buyers, or 62.6% more sellers than buyers, the widest gap in Redfin’s records
- U.S. active listings in September: 1,161,615, up 5.4% from a year earlier, according to Realtor.com
- U.S. listings with a price reduction in September: 20.8%, the highest September share since 2018, according to Realtor.com
- National median list price in September: $419,250, down 1.4% from a year earlier and the 11th straight month of annual declines, according to Realtor.com
- Homes under contract nationally in September: down 4.1% from a year earlier
Houston sits at the sharp end of it:
- Home sellers compared with buyers in Houston: 134.6% more sellers than buyers in September, according to Redfin’s October 14, 2026 report, third among the major U.S. metros Redfin tracks, behind Miami and Nashville
- Houston-area listings with a price reduction in September: 20.2%, according to Realtor.com
- Houston-area median list price in September: about $354,000, down 1.7% from a year earlier, according to Realtor.com
- Active single-family listings in Greater Houston in September: 40,192, up 6.3% from a year earlier and a 5.5-month supply, according to the Houston Association of REALTORS’ September update, released October 14, 2026
- Single-family home sales in Greater Houston in September: 7,030, down 5.7% from a year earlier, according to HAR
Listings are up and fewer buyers are signing contracts, here and nationally, and one in five listings already carries a price cut.
Why Can’t Sellers and Buyers Agree on Price?
Because each side is doing its math from a different year. Many sellers are working from what their neighbors got in 2021 and 2022. Buyers are working from a monthly payment at today’s rates.
Freddie Mac’s average 30-year fixed rate was 7.40% on October 15, 2026, up from 6.27% a year earlier. On a $325,000 home with 20% down, that difference adds about $195 a month in principal and interest. Turn it around and the buyer who could afford that home a year ago can now afford roughly $35,000 less house for the same payment.
Our illustration: a $325,000 price, 20% down, and a 30-year fixed loan, principal and interest only, at Freddie Mac’s averages of 7.40% (October 15, 2026) and 6.27% (a year earlier). A lender can run the exact numbers for your price range.
Buyers have responded by slowing down. Jimmy describes them as “much more methodical and less emotional” than they were five years ago. On the episode, recorded September 2, he was direct about where rates were headed: “If you’re really paying attention, the rates aren’t going down.” By October 15, Freddie Mac’s average stood at 7.40%.
Sellers have less reason to move. Zillow’s September 29, 2026 analysis notes that many existing owners hold significant equity and low monthly payments locked in when rates were near 3%, which leaves them little incentive to cut. Sellers near active builders face a second pressure: new construction made up 30.7% of Houston home sales in the 12 months ending July 2026, up from about 24% in 2019, according to the same Zillow analysis.
One side can’t change its payment, so the price is the part that moves. Holding out past that point often isn’t about the comps. “Sometimes ego can be a seller’s worst enemy,” Jimmy says.
Are Home Prices Falling in Houston?
Barely, and that’s the part worth keeping in proportion. HAR reported a median single-family sale price of $325,000 in September, essentially unchanged from $325,990 a year earlier, and its chair points to stable prices. Redfin calls Houston a buyer’s market because it counts sellers against active buyers. Both descriptions fit the same numbers.
Nationally, sellers are adjusting and staying put. Realtor.com found that about 5.6% of listings were pulled from the market in September, in line with a year ago, with no sign of a broad retreat.
So the market isn’t collapsing. What’s changed is who sets the price. A seller can no longer name a number and wait for the market to reach it, because the market is moving the other way, slowly.
What Happens to a Home That Sits on the Market?
It tends to take longer and close further below its asking price. Three sources point the same direction:
- Across Texas, homes that sold in July averaged 63 days on the market, while homes still unsold at the end of July had been listed an average of 92 days, according to the Texas Real Estate Research Center’s September 18, 2026 statewide report
- In Greater Houston, homes that sold in September averaged 58 days on the market, up from 56 a year earlier, according to HAR
- An older national Zillow Research study found that homes selling almost immediately closed about 1% under list, while homes on the market about two months closed about 5% under. It shows a pattern, not a cause.
A paid-off home that sits still costs its owner taxes, insurance, upkeep, and the use of the money tied up in it. Our Home Pricing Check (opens in a new tab) puts your own numbers on that wait and gives you a report to keep.
What Should Your Agent Tell You About Price?
The truth, including when it costs them the listing. An agent who agrees to whatever number you name isn’t doing the job you hired them for. “You hire us as a professional, and we’re giving you the guidance,” Jimmy says.
Before you sign with anyone, including us, an agent should be able to show you:
- The closed sales your price is based on, and how recent they are
- The homes you’ll be competing against the day you list, including new construction
- The price they recommend and the reasoning, even if it’s lower than you hoped
- What they’ll report to you in the first two weeks, and what result would lead them to recommend a change
If an agent can’t walk you through the first two, or won’t commit to the last one, the price they’re quoting is a sales pitch. Giving a seller the honest number has cost us a listing, and our guide on when to reduce the price of your home tells that story.
What Should Houston Sellers Do Now?
Price for the buyer who’s shopping this month, and decide in advance what you’ll do if two weeks pass quietly.
If you haven’t listed yet, our guide on how to price your home to sell in Houston covers comparable sales, the competition, and why pricing high to leave room rarely works here. If you’re already listed, the price-reduction guide linked above covers how to read the first two weeks and how to respond.
If you’re buying, the same numbers work in your favor. You have more homes to choose from and more room to negotiate than buyers had a few years ago, as long as the payment works at today’s rates.
The Bottom Line
Homes are sitting because sellers are pricing for a market that has passed, and the fix is the price. Sellers outnumber buyers by more than two to one in Houston, one in five listings has already been cut, and rates are above 7%. Prices here are down only slightly, which makes this an adjustment. The sellers who come through it best set the price from current sales and competition, and they work with an agent who’ll tell them the number they need to hear.
Want an honest read on your price? Let’s talk through your options. Call our no-pressure concierge line at (281) 781-4348 or visit simienproperties.com.
In this series: this explainer comes first. Our guide to pricing your home covers choosing a list price, and our guide to reducing your price covers a listing that isn’t moving. Both are linked above.
References
- Redfin, Home Sellers Now Outnumber Buyers By 63%, the Biggest Gap Since the Post-Recession Housing Crash, published October 14, 2026
- Realtor.com, Price Cuts Reach Yearly High as Inventory Nears Pre-Pandemic Levels: September 2026 Monthly Housing Trends Report, published September 30, 2026
- Houston Association of REALTORS, September 2026 Housing Market Update, released October 14, 2026
- Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, weekly average as of October 15, 2026
- Zillow, New homes now cost less than existing ones in one-third of major markets, published September 29, 2026
- Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University, Texas Housing Insight, September 2026, published September 18, 2026 (statewide data for July 2026)
- Zillow Research, The Price of Overpricing: How Listing Price Impacts Time on Market, national study, published May 24, 2016
- Simien Properties, Home Pricing Check (opens in a new tab), tool description, research current as of September 2026
- Simien Properties, “Ask Jimmy: Pricing Your Home in a Buyer’s Market: Start in the Sweet Spot,” September 2, 2026, audio (opens in a new tab)
Get local guidance before you decide. Call our no-pressure concierge line at (281) 781-4348 or visit simienproperties.com.




